Even if the Royals lose by one run, those betting Kansas City on the run line will win their bet because of the 1.5 runs.

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Using our earlier game between the Padres and the Giants for total purposes, it’s quite possible we would see a totals proposition of:

It’s also wise to consider the predicted amount of runs scored in a game when looking at the run line. On the regular money line we may see odds like:

Kansas City Royals +165

Boston Red Sox -180

What this means is that bettors wishing to wager more than 8.5 runs will be scored will have to risk $130 to win $100, while those wagering on the under will risk $100 to win $110.

As a general rule, strikeout pitchers typically perform better in night games and may be solid under plays, while off-speed pitchers who don’t register too many strikeouts are usually good over plays when they are pitching in the daytime.. If you bet nothing but underdogs you can win less than half of your bets and still come out ahead in the long run.

Don’t worry, once you see it in action, it’s not nearly as confusing as it first sounds.

Kansas City Royals +1.5 -125

Boston Red Sox -1.5 +105

The run line uses a constant spread of 1.5 runs, although on very rare occasions you may see it jump to 2.5 runs. The team that is favored on the money line will also be the favored team on the run line.

Baseball Overs & UndersIf you’re completely new to overs/unders, more commonly referred to as totals, a good place to get started is here.

Baseball totals are just like the totals for any other sport, in that you’re betting the total number of points (runs in this case) is either over or under the bookmaker’s predicted total.

Baseball Betting – How to Bet on BaseballMany longtime sports bettors will say that baseball is the easiest of the major sports in which to show a profit, yet it’s one of the least wagered on sports around.

In the book “Sports Betting: A Winner’s Handbook” Jerry Patterson states, “More big scores have been made betting on baseball than any other proposition.”

The Run Line The run line is essentially a combination of the point spread and the money line rolled into one.

Now, those people betting on the Royals are risking more money than they will win, in this case $125 to win $100, but they are receiving 1.5 runs. For our purposes, let’s say the odds on the game were:

The one difference is that in many cases you will have to risk more than the standard -110 used in football and basketball totals when you place a baseball totals bet. But it’s actually quite easy.

Looking at another game, this time where the road team is favored, we’ll choose the Padres at the Giants. There is no point spread and the odds used for baseball wagering look foreign to them.

San Diego Padres -1.5 +135

San Francisco Giants +1.5 -155

On the money line, Padres bettors will risk $115 to win $100, while Giants bettors will risk $100 to win $105. Obviously, 1.5 runs is more meaningful in a contest where the oddsmaker is predicting a total of 7 runs to be scored than it is in a game where the predicted total is 14 runs.

But when betting with the run line, we would expect to see the same game looking closer to:

The most common assumption on why sports gamblers don’t wager on baseball is that they don’t know how. Bet wisely and remember that it’s a long season and you might be the next gambler to be singing the praises of baseball wagering.

Betting the run like makes sense when you like a big favorite and can get them at reduced odds by giving the 1.5 runs.

By Allen Moody

Smart bettors and professional gamblers will seldom give odds greater than -140 when betting on baseball and always look for a reason to bet the underdog. On the positive side, there will be cases where you receive favorable odds, such as +120 when you place a toals bet in baseball.

San Diego Padres -115

San Francisco Giants +105

San Diego Padres OV 8.5 -130

San Francisco Giants UN 8.5 +110[

How is the predicted number of runs figured? Simply by looking at the oddsmaker’s over/under number on the game. If you don’t know anything about over/unders, you’re in luck, as that’s our next topic.

The reason the odds didn’t change as much for the Padres (-115 to +135) as they did for the Red Sox (-180 to +105) is because the Red Sox are the home team and will not bat in the bottom of the ninth inning if they lead by one run or they will stop batting in the ninth inning if they go ahead by a run, even if the bases are loaded and there are no outs, unless they score by home run.

As you remember from your reading on the money line, what this means is that Red Sox bettors are asked to risk $180 to win $100, while Royals bettors will risk $100 to win $165.

Let’s use an example of the Royals playing at the Red Sox. Using the run line, however, we would see odds resembling:

7 Places to Find Inspiration for Crafting

The first thing prospective baseball bettors need to do is understand how the money line works.

For wagering purposes what happens in extra innings counts, both for totals and run line bets.

The Padres, as the road team, will continue to bat all the way through the ninth inning even if they’re already ahead, or if the Padres take a one run lead in the top of the ninth, they’ll continue to swing away and try to add to their lead.

There you have the basics to betting on the National Pastime

Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.

So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.

http://prosportsonline.net

So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years.

The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.

The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.

The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.

NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.

So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..

By: Manny G

prosportsonline.net

. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.

Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.

To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.

College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units.

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Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable

Maybe its boring, maybe there are no role models, maybe they have no place to play? For whatever reason there has been a lost link, and it shows. Ole’ George will do whatever it takes to win because he loses so grasiously. He has publicity stunts that take the focus off the game, and puts on a show for our young adoring fans about the urgency to win, and gives them a seminar on the art of whining about losing. Even the struggling Reds lost Ken Griffey Jr., no he is not a franchise player for Cincinnati. Maybe the other 9 reasons the MLB sucks has something to do with it!

Counting Down the Downfall of Baseball

I am a baseball fan first and foremost. But no the franchise players are as dead as the suicide squeeze in the MLB.

#9 Too Many Tampered Seasons

This blemish dates all the way back to the Sox throwing the World Series. The Yankees payroll is out of control! Lucky for us the remaining fans that talent and money doesn’t always win championships. This of course helps prepare them for free agency. For a purist of the game the DH opened a window for a single tool baseball player to make it to the bigs. But somewhere between being a kid that loves the game and being an adult who gets paid to play the game a transformation happens. MLB has been slow to move on this, but some initiatives are starting to funnel money back into developing solid inner city youth baseball programs. The purity of the sport is not represented at the Major League level.

#7 No Parity in the League

Parity is defined as:equality, as in amount, status, or character. I like the commentary, but it isn’t exciting television. Baseball hasn’t been able to appeal to elite African-American atheletes.

#10-The players are overpaid. The head of the Yankee player monopoly will pout until he wins another World Series. So how does pitching get back to where it was..Let’s start a couple more expansion teams..that will fix it. He is the anti-christ of the purist movement. It let’s good hitter loose empasis on defense, and it takes away from the original nature of the game. They give the poor kid a cap and a prayer and send him out there to compete. This is the shoot’em up Nintendo generation here that we are trying to interest in our beloved sport. Contemporary craziness is Pete Rose betting on baseball, strikes, and now the “roid rage.” There are just too many factors to list! It just well…sucks! The game has been tarnished in so many ways. ratings are falling because people would rather watch people drive around in a circle at high rates of speed then listen to another has-been drooling all over the microphone about baseball.

It all goes to say, baseball has lost the interest of the African-American community. The only thing that makes it bearable for a fan is they are in third place, and they haven’t had a World Series monopoly. Granted there are some hard nosed athletes which could be considered baseball purist still around, but the Mark Graces of the World are few and far between.

#4 Free Agency and the Death of the Franchise Player

Free agency is a curse! This has destroyed the franchise player. Too many prospects are being forced up too early. There isn’t a whole lot more coaches can do to teach players to throw 100 mph. The already thin pitching talent being spread across the league to play in empty stadiums. Baseball has a unique dynamic that is referred to as chemistry, and it isn’t for sale!

#6 Pitching

Now that Nolan and the Goose have hung up their cleats who is left to make these lumber lugging neanderthals look retarded at the plate. Too much controversey for the fair weather fan, they are probably Nascar fans now. Spice it up a little bit, if Golf can up their ratings due to Tiger and a few dicy commentators..what is MLB or the broadcast networks doing to change it up?

#3 George Steinbrenner

Don’t get me started on this figure. The free agent market paired with large market clubs will snuff out any such chances of restoring that to baseball. Or heaven forbid, my favorite argument, a picher that might be able to hit (Babe Ruth ring a bell). At least Jeff Gordon’s helmet size didn’t grow two sizes in a single season.

#5 Boring Commentary

The T.V. This is what happens without a salary cap. They also forgot that it took away some fundamental aspects of managing. With no salary cap Major League Baseball has let a whiny bunch of babies be the face of the organization. I know the revenue sharing scam that MLB has put into place to hush up the small teams enough for them to keep a star of two, but this is out of control what these players make. The small market teams will never hold onto a franchise player, and this hurts the fanbase. These types of players survive their MLB bootcamp with Kansas City or the Reds and then after those teams can no longer afford them they have them well groomed for the “big money franchises.” The rich get richer, the poor keep calling up rookies!

#8 No Salary Cap

This is a problem. Here are my top reasons why…. To me that is a player that should get to stay wherever he wants, and the MLB market should be to a point that some salary could be eatin’ by the Reds to ensure the Hall of Famer goes out exactly as he wanted to go. Where did these types of pitchers go? The intimidators, not on roids –I might add –where are they in the league. The problems are many for this little pickle the MLB has put itself in. But without a doubt he wanted to be a Red, even though they were horrible. You can find it the dictionary, but don’t look for it MLB clubhouses. Your best 9 against my best 9, everybody hits!

#1 Loss of the Inner City Development

Just when you thought I had nothing intelligent to say: The main reason that Major League Baseball is below average is because the inner cities do not produce baseball players like they have in the past. I love the game. Now we have records that are going to have undeniable question marks beside them. There are fewer African-American playing the game of baseball today then in the 70’s. He put up Hall of Fame numbers while in Seattle. League expansion is a cluster of uncanny proportions. And the small teams get hit the hardest..these teams survive by calling up the next great hope from AA or AAA to fill a gap. The double switch, the bunt, and the art of the pitcher moving a runner over. I am a teacher of the game at many different levels. Pitching is usually something you have that is innate and polished, hitting can be developed and is so more effectively in all the ametuer ranks of baseball. Hitters have developed, even without the use of human growth hormones, the art of hitting a round ball with a round stick squarely has become a science. It’s a joke that MLB pulled in order to do away with having pitchers go to the plate and flail out the ball in crucial parts of the game. Pitching is relatively the same.

#2 The Designated Hitter

The designated hitter was devised in 1979 by the American League to up attendance and run production…blah..blah..blah